Mai ka waenaKekemapa, ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai aluminika, me Shanghai alumini rebound kokoke 8.6% mai kahi haʻahaʻa o 18,190 yuan / ton, a
ʻO ka LME aluminika e piʻi ana mai kahi kiʻekiʻe o 2,109 US dollars/ton a i 2,400 US dollars/ton.Ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, aia kēia ma muli o kahi manaʻo kūʻai kūʻai mākeke optimistic
e pili ana i nā manaʻolana o ka ʻoki ʻana i ka uku paneʻe o ka US Federal Reserve, a ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ua piʻi nui ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā ʻoki hana alumina i hui pū ʻia e ka pilikia o ke Kaiʻula.ʻO kēia piʻi ʻana o ka alumini Shanghai ua haki i ka fluctuation
i hoʻokumu ʻia ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki, me ka LME alumini e hōʻike ana i ka nāwaliwali.ʻO ka pule i hala aku nei, ʻoiai ua hoʻomaka hou kekahi mau mea hana alumina
ʻO ka hana ʻana, ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i nā pilikia hoʻolako, ʻo nā kumu kūʻai alumina a me nā alumini i loaʻa i kahi hoʻihoʻi iki.
1. E kaohi mau ana na hemahema o ka aila bauxite i ka hookuu ana aku i ka mana hana alumina
Ma ke ʻano o ka ʻai bauxite home, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka hana o nā mines i ka hoʻoilo.ʻO kahi ulia pōpilikia ma Shanxi i ka hopena o ka makahiki i hala i alakaʻi ai i ka nui o nā mines kūloko e hoʻomaha
hana no ka nānā ʻana a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻana, me ka manaʻo ʻole o ka hoʻomaka hou ʻana i ka wā pōkole.ʻAʻole i hōʻike hou ʻia ka ʻoihana Sanmenxia ma Henan, me
ua emi iho ka hua oka ma Pingdingshan.He ʻuʻuku nā mines hou i wehe ʻia ma Guizhou, a ua manaʻo ʻia e paʻa mau ka lako o ka bauxite no ka manawa lōʻihi, e kākoʻo nui ana i nā kumukūʻai alumina.E pili ana i ka aila lawe ʻia mai, ka hopena o ka
Ke hoʻomau nei ka pau ʻana o ka wahie ma muli o ka pahū ʻana o ka ʻaila ʻo Guinea, i ʻike nui ʻia i ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kumukūʻai wahie no nā ʻoihana eli a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku ukana kai.
I kēia manawa, ʻo ia ka manawa kiʻekiʻe no ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka ʻaila ʻo Guinea.Wahi a SMM, ʻo ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka alumina o ka pule i hala aku nei mai Guinea i 2.2555 miliona tons.
he 392,900 tons mai ka pule aku nei he 1.8626 miliona tons.ʻO ke kūlana paʻakikī i ke Kaiʻula he hopena liʻiliʻi i ka lawe ʻana i ka alumina ore,
no ka mea, ma kahi o kanahiku pakeneka o ka waiwai alumina a Kina e lawe mai ana mai Guinea mai, a aole e hele na moku mai Guinea a me Australia ma ke Kai Ula.
Hiki ke ʻike ʻia ka hopena ma kahi ʻāpana liʻiliʻi o ka lawe ʻana i ka alumina mai Turkey.
aluminiMa muli o ka hemahema o ka hoʻolako ʻana i ka ʻaila alumina a me nā kaohi ʻana i ka hana kaiapuni, ua nui ka hāʻule o ka mana hana alumina ma mua.Wahi a Aladdin, e like me ka Pōʻalima i hala, ʻo ka mana hana o ka alumina he 81.35 miliona tons, me ka helu hana o 78.7%, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka pae maʻamau o 84-87 miliona tons i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki.Ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai wahi alumina me nā kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana.ʻO ka Pōʻalima i hala aku nei, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai ma ka ʻāina ʻo Henan he 3,320 yuan/ton, ʻoi aku ka 190 yuan/ton mai ka pule i hala.Ua hoʻonui ʻia nā kumukūʻai ma ka ʻāina ʻo Shanxi e 180 yuan i 3,330 yuan/ton i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka pule i hala.ʻO ka pule i hala aku nei, me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka maikaʻi o ka ea ma kekahi mau wahi o Shandong a me Henan a me ka hāpai ʻana i nā ʻōlelo aʻo nui o ka pollution i ka wā, ua hoʻomaka hou kekahi mau hui alumina i ka hana ʻana, ʻo ka nui o ia mau mea i loaʻa no ka lawe ʻana.ʻO kahi hui nui ma ka ʻāina ʻo Shanxi i hōʻemi i kona hiki ke hana ma muli o nā pilikia calcination e hoʻomaka hou ana i ka hana ʻana, me kekahi mau ʻoihana ʻē aʻe, e hōʻike ana e hoʻomaikaʻi ke kūlana paʻa o nā huahana wahi alumina i ka wā pōkole.Eia naʻe, manaʻo ʻia ka pilikia o ka lawa ʻole o ka ʻai i ka hāʻawi ʻana i ke kākoʻo no nā kumukūʻai alumina i ka manawa waena.
2. Hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai a me nā waiwai no ka Aluminum Electrolysis
Ma ke ʻano o nā kumukūʻai no ka electrolysis aluminika, ma waho aʻe o ka piʻi nui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai alumina, ua paʻa mau ke kumukūʻai o ka uila a me ka soda caustic.I ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka mahina, ua hoʻohaʻahaʻa nui ʻia kahi ʻoihana kūloko kaulana i kāna kumu kūʻai no ka alumini fluoride, kahi i hoʻemi ai i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai ma ka mākeke fluoride alumini.ʻO ka holoʻokoʻa, ua manaʻo ʻo SMM i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Ianuali, ua hiki ke kumukūʻai o ka electrolysis aluminika ma kahi o 16,600 yuan no ka ton, ma ka 320 yuan no ke tona mai kahi o 16,280 yuan no ka ton i ka waena o Dekemaba i ka makahiki i hala.Me ka piʻi like ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka electrolysis aluminika, ua ʻike pū ka loaʻa kālā no nā ʻoihana alumini electrolytic i kekahi piʻi.
3. He emi iki ma ka Aluminum Electrolysis Production a me ka Haahaa Inventory Levels
Wahi a ka National Bureau of Statistics, mai Ianuali a Nowemapa 2023, ʻo ka hana kumulative o Kina o ka alumini electrolytic he 38 miliona tons, kahi hoʻonui makahiki-ma-makahiki o 3.9%.Ua hāʻule iki ka huahana i Nowemapa i ka 3.544 miliona tons, ma muli o ka palena o ka lako uila ma ka ʻāina Yunnan.E like me ka mea i hōʻike ʻia e Mysteel, i ka hopena o Nowemapa, ʻo 45.0385 miliona mau tons i kūkulu ʻia e Kina, me ka mana hana o 42.0975 miliona tons a me ka nui o ka hoʻohana ʻana o 93.47%, kahi emi o 2.62% mahina-ma ka mahina.I Nowemapa, ʻo ka lawe ʻana mai o Kina i ka alumini maka he 194,000 tons, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ʻOkakopa, akā aia nō naʻe ma kahi kiʻekiʻe.
Ma ka lā 5 o Ianuali, ʻo ka waihona alumini o ka Shanghai Futures Exchange he 96,637 tons, e hoʻomau ana i ke ʻano i lalo a waiho ʻia ma kahi haʻahaʻa i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka manawa like i nā makahiki i hala.He 38,917 tona ka nui o ka palapala kauoha, e kokua ana i na kumukuai e hiki mai ana.Ma ka lā 4 o Ianuali, ua hōʻike ʻo Mysteel he 446,000 tons ka waihona waiwai o ka alumini electrolytic, 11,3 tausani tons ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala, e hōʻike ana e paʻa mau ana ka holo ʻana o nā wahi āpau.Ma muli o ka hoʻonāwaliwali ʻana o nā hana i lalo ma mua o ka Spring Festival a me ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka wai alumini e nā ʻoihana alumini electrolytic, hiki ke piʻi ka waihona alumini ingot i ka hapa lua o Ianuali.Ma ka lā 5 o Ianuali, ua kū ka waihona waiwai alumini LME ma 558,200 tons, ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe iki ʻia mai kona haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma waena o Kekemapa, akā aia nō ma kahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala.ʻO ka nui o nā loaʻa hale kūʻai i hoʻopaʻa ʻia he 374,300 tons, me ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana.Ua ʻike ka ʻaelike wahi alumini LME i kahi contango liʻiliʻi, e hōʻike ana ʻaʻole i hōʻike ʻia ka paʻa o ka lako wahi.
4. Hoʻonāwaliwali i ka makemake ma mua o ka makahiki hou o Kina
Wahi a SMM, ma hope o ka New Yeay's Day, ua komo ka waihona kālā billet alumini i kahi puʻupuʻu wikiwiki.Ma ka lā 4 o Ianuali, ua hōʻea ka ʻike waiwai o ke koʻokoʻo alumini kūloko i ka 82,000 tons, he piʻi o 17,900 tons i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka Pōʻalima i hala.ʻO ka hōʻea ʻana mai o nā waiwai i ka wā hoʻomaha, ka nāwaliwali o nā hana ma lalo o ka makahiki hou o Kina, a me ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai alumini i kāohi i ke kūʻai ʻana i lalo, ʻo ia ke kumu nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka waihona.I ka pule mua o 2024, ua hoʻomau ka nawaliwali o ka hana o nā ʻoihana profile alumini home, ma 52.7%, me ka emi ʻana o ka pule he 2.1%.Ua hōʻole ʻia kekahi mau kumukūʻai hana a me nā kauoha, ʻoiai ʻo ke alakaʻi ʻana i nā ʻoihana ʻoihana automotive e mau ana i nā uku hana kiʻekiʻe.Ua kū ka mākeke profile photovoltaic i ka hoʻokūkū ikaika, a hāʻule pū ka nui o nā kauoha.Mai ka hiʻohiʻona terminal, ʻo ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka makahiki i ka makahiki ma kahi kūkulu kūkulu hou a me kahi kūkulu hale mai Ianuali a Nowemapa i hōʻike ʻia i ka hoʻomaikaʻi marginal, akā naʻe, nāwaliwali ke kūlana kūʻai ma ka pae o nā mea kūʻai aku.I Nowemapa 2023, ua hoʻopau ka hana kaʻa a me ke kūʻai aku ʻana o Kina i 3.093 miliona a me 2.97 miliona mau ʻāpana, kēlā me kēia, e hoʻopaʻa inoa ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki he 29.4% a me 27.4%, e hōʻike ana i ka ulu wikiwiki.
5. Kaiapuni Macroeconomic Kūwaho Māmā
Ua hoʻomau ka Federal Reserve i ka hoʻololi ʻole o ka uku panee i ka wā o ka hālāwai ʻo Dekemaba, me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o Powell i nā hōʻailona dovish, e ʻōlelo ana e noʻonoʻo ana ka Federal Reserve i ka ʻoki ʻana i ka uku paneʻe kūpono, a ua komo ka manaʻo o ka hōʻemi ʻana.Ke hoʻoikaika nei nā manaʻolana no ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka uku, e mau ana ka manaʻo o ka mākeke, a ʻaʻohe kumu macroeconomic maikaʻi ʻole i manaʻo ʻia i ka wā pōkole.Ua emi iho ka helu helu kālā US ma lalo o 101, a ua hōʻole hoʻi nā hua paʻa US.ʻAʻole i like ka manaʻo o ka hālāwai ʻo Dekemaba i paʻi ʻia ma hope mai ka manaʻo o ka hālāwai ma mua, a ua kākoʻo pū ka ʻikepili maikaʻi no ka hana ʻole mahiʻai i ka mahina ʻo Dekemaba i ka manaʻo e hoʻomau ʻia ke kulekele pili kālā no ka manawa lōʻihi.Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole kēia e keʻakeʻa i ka manaʻolana kumu o ʻekolu mau hōʻemi i ka makahiki 2024. Ma mua o ka makahiki hou o Kina, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa koke i ka ʻāina macroeconomic.Ua hāʻule ka PMI hana o Kina i ka mahina ʻo Dekemaba e 0.4% i 49%, e hōʻike ana i ka nāwaliwali o ka hana a me nā hōʻailona koi.Ma waena o lākou, ua emi iho ka helu kauoha hou e 0.7% a i 48.7%, e hōʻike ana e pono e hoʻoikaika ʻia ke kumu no ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Jan-22-2024